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人口老龄化趋势下的商业机会
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人口老龄化已经是世界范围内的问题，我们应该像关注全球变暖一样关注人口老龄化。
IT’S not easy being gray. IT产业可没那么容易变成夕阳产业。 For the first time ever, getting out of a car is no picnic. My back is hunched. And I’m holding on to handrails as I lurch upstairs. 有史以来第一次，我从车里出来不是去野餐。我的背已经又弯又驼了。当我挣扎着上楼时，我必须要扶着扶手。 I’m 45. But I feel decades older because I’m wearing an Age Gain Now Empathy System, developed by researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Agnes, they call it. 我今年45岁。但是我感觉自己老了几十岁，因为我身上穿戴着“立即增长年龄的神入系统”，这是由马萨诸塞州科研机构研发的。他们把这个叫做Agnes（该系统的单词首字母缩写）。 At first glance, it may look like a mere souped-up jumpsuit. A helmet, attached by cords to a pelvic harness, cramps my neck and spine. Yellow-paned goggles muddy my vision. Plastic bands, running from the harness to each arm, clip my wingspan. Compression knee bands discourage bending. Plastic shoes, with uneven Styrofoam pads for soles, throw off my center of gravity. Layers of surgical gloves make me all thumbs. 乍一看，这就像一个改装了的连身衣。一个头盔，用线和一个盆骨套相连，让我的脖子和脊椎有种抽筋的感觉。黄色而透明的眼罩让我的视线一片浑浊。塑料带子从盆骨连到我的每个手臂，使我的手臂难以伸展。压缩膝盖的带子阻止我弯腿。塑料鞋子，鞋垫是崎岖不平的发泡胶垫，让我失去重力。多层的手术用手套让我的每个指头都象大拇指一样粗。
The age-empathy suit comes from the M.I.T. AgeLab, where researchers designed Agnes to help product designers and marketers better understand older adults and create innovative products for them. Many industries have traditionally shied away from openly marketing to people 65 and older, viewing them as an unfashionable demographic group that might doom their product with young and hip spenders. But now that Americans are living longer and more actively, a number of companies are recognizing the staying power of the mature market. 这个增大年龄的外套来自于M.I.T.的老年研究中心，在那里研究员们设计出Agnes来帮助老年人产品设计者和市场人员更好的理解老年人，这样就可以为老年人发明更好的产品。很多生产厂家传统上把65岁以上的人排除在目标人群之外，他们把老年人看做墨守成规的一群人而不会喜欢新的产品。但是现在美国人的生活方式变得越来越活跃，人们的寿命也在不断加长，相当数量的公司开始意识到老年人是市场上持续存在的力量。 “Aging is a multidisciplinary phenomenon, and it requires new tools to look at,” Joseph F. Coughlin, director of AgeLab, tells me, encumbered and fatigued after trying to conduct a round of interviews while wearing Agnes. Viewed through yellow goggles, the bright colors of Professor Coughlin’s bow tie appear dim. “Agnes is one of those tools,” he says. “老龄化是一个和多个学科相关的现象，这要求我们用全新的工具来研究它，”Joseph F.Coughlin是老年研究中心的负责人，他告诉我，当你穿上Agnes开始一次采访活动的时候，保证你会筋疲力尽。从那片黄色的风镜往外面看，Coughlin教授的领带显得很暗淡。“Agnes是其中一个工具，”他说。 AgeLab, like a handful of other research centers at universities and companies around the country, develops technologies to help older adults maintain their health, independence and quality of life. Companies come here to understand their target audience or to have their products, policies and services studied. 老年研究中心，就像国家里其他的大学和公司的研究中心一样，研发各种科技产品来保持老年人的健康，独立和生活质量。公司通过这里来明确他们的目标人群或者研发他们需要的产品，政策和服务。 Often, visitors learn hard truths at AgeLab: many older adults don’t like products, like big-button phones, that telegraph agedness. “The reality is such that you can’t build an old man’s product, because a young man won’t buy it and an old man won’t buy it,” Professor Coughlin says. 通常来说，参观者会了解到老年研究中心的一些痛苦的事实：很多老年人并不喜欢他们研发的产品，比如说大按钮的电话。“事实就是你做不出老年人专用的产品，因为年轻人不会买。老人还是不会买。”Coughlin教授这样说。 The idea is to help companies design and sell age-friendly products — with customizable font size, say, or sound speed — much the way they did with environmentally friendly products. That means offering enticing features and packaging to appeal to a certain demographic without alienating other consumer groups. Baked potato chips are just one example of products that appeal to everybody but skew toward older people. Toothpastes that promise whitening or gum health are another. 他们的思路是帮助公司设计并出售老年人喜爱的产品——公司可以定制他们需要的产品的字体大小或者语速的快慢——就好像他们在做环境友好型的产品一样。那意味着你没有疏远其他人群，却想为一个特定的人群提供拥有诱人特征和包装的产品。薯片是几乎人人都喜欢吃的模范产品，但是老年人对此不感冒。美白功能的牙膏和保健口香糖是另外的反例。 Researchers at AgeLab are studying the stress levels of older adults who operate a hands-free parallel-parking system developed by Ford Motor. Although this ultrasonic-assisted system may make backing up easier for older adults who can’t turn their necks to the same degree they once did, the car’s features — like blind-spot detection and a voice-activated audio system — are intended to appeal to all drivers who enjoy smart technology. 老年研究中心的研究员还在研究那些操纵由福特汽车公司研发的自动停车系统的老年人的血压水平。尽管这一超声波协助的系统是帮助那些不能自如转动脖子的老人的产品，这部汽车的特征——就好像盲点侦探和声控系统一样——吸引了所有的司机，因为他们都想感受一下高科技。 “With any luck, if I am successful,” Professor Coughlin says, “retailers won’t know they are putting things on the shelves for older adults.” “如果我成功了，”Coughlin教授说，“那些零售商在把产品放上货架的时候他们根本不知道这些东西是为老年人设计的。” THE first of about 76 million baby boomers in the United States turned 65 in January. They are looking forward to a life expectancy that is higher than that of any previous generation. 当年美国7600万的婴儿潮在今年一月已经变成白发苍苍的老人了。他们比以前的任何一代都要对生活怀有更高的期望。 The number of people 65 and older is expected to more than double worldwide, to about 1.5 billion by 2050 from 523 million last year, according to estimates from the United Nations. That means people 65 and over will soon outnumber children under 5 for the first time ever. As a consequence, many people may have to defer their retirement — or never entirely retire — in order to maintain sustainable incomes. 在世界范围内，2050年的65岁以上老年人可能会是现在的两倍，去年是52300万，2050年则是150亿。这是来自联合国的估计。那也就是说，有史以来65岁以上的老年人数量将要超过5岁以下儿童的数量。那就会导致许多人要延迟他们的退休时间——或者永远也不可能完全退休——这样才能得到可持续的收入。 Many economists view such an exploding population of seventy- and eighty-somethings not as an asset, but as a looming budget crisis. After all, by one estimate, treating dementia worldwide already costs more than $600 billion annually. 许多经济学家没有把这些七八十岁的老人数量的增加看作一种财富，而是若隐若现的预算危机。毕竟，根据一个估计，治疗老年痴呆者在世界范围内每年的花费超过6万亿美元。 “No other force is likely to shape the future of national economic health, public finances and policy making,” analysts at Standard & Poor’s wrote in a recent report, “as the irreversible rate at which the world’s population is aging.” “没有其他的力量有可能会塑造未来的国家经济健康，公共财政和政策的制定了，”标准普尔的分析家在最近的一则报告上这样写道，“世界范围内的老龄化正在令人烦恼的不断加深。” The S.&P. analysis, called “Global Aging 2010,” warns that many countries are not prepared to cover the pension and health care costs of so many if those governments do not radically alter their age-related spending policies in the next few decades, the report said, national debts will grow to rival — or even more than double — gross domestic product. 标准普尔的分析家把这个称为“2010年的全球老龄化”，他警告说许多国家还没有准备好支付起这么多的养老金和健康保障金；如果这些政府在未来的数十年内没有从根本上转变与老年人相关的财政政策的话，这篇报告宣称，国家的将会面临债务危机——欠下的债务甚至会比国家产品总额的两倍还要多。 But longevity-focused researchers including Professor Coughlin, whose blog is called Disruptive Demographics, are betting that baby boomers, unlike generations past, will not go gentle into the good night of long-term care. In fact, a few research groups at institutions like Oregon Health & Science University, M.I.T. and Stanford, along with foundations and the private sector, are devising policies and systems for an alternate scenario: older adults living independently at home for longer periods, whether that home is a private residence or a senior community. 但是关注老年人的研究员们，包括Coughlin教授，他有个博客名叫“破坏性的人口统计”，都在打赌说当年的婴儿潮不像以前的任何一代，他们不会甘愿老了之后在疗养院里度过一生的。事实上，相当数量的研究小组，比如俄勒冈健康与科技大学，MIT以及斯坦福，还有基金与私人部门，都在定制可变换的政策和系统的脚本：老年人要独立的生活更长的时间，不管是在私人住宅里面还是在老年人社区里面。 Devices for I’ve-fallen-and-I-can’t-get-up catastrophes, they say, represent the old business of old age. The new business of old age involves technologies and services that promote wellness, mobility, autonomy and social connectivity. These include wireless pillboxes that transmit information about patients’ medication use, as well as new financial services, like “Second Acts” from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, that help people plan for longer lives and second careers. 为了解决“我摔倒了就再也站不起来”这一困境的装置就代表了为老年人服务的老年商业。这种为老年人设计的新商业有科技和服务的参与，这种服务可以促进健康，行走能力，自理能力还有社会交际能力。这些产品包括可以传送患者的药用信息的药片盒，和新的财政服务，比如“二度行动”，是美国美林银行推出的服务，他帮助人们计划更长久的生活以及二次就业。 Together, those kinds of products and services are already a multibillion-dollar market, industry analysts say. And if such innovations prove to promote health and independence, delaying entry into long-term care, the potential savings to the health care system could be even greater. 工业分析家说，这些产品和服务早就形成了一个数十亿美元的市场。而且如果这些创造确实能够促进老年人的健康和独立，延迟他们进入长期疗养的时段，这种对健康系统的挽救则是是更加伟大的成就。 That’s the upbeat message that Eric Dishman, the global director of health innovation at Intel, has been trying to get across to policy makers and industry executives for more than a decade. A charismatic health policy wonk, Mr. Dishman has held audiences at TedMed conferences spellbound with his lecture on the subject, in which he carts around an old-school rotary telephone, a prop dramatizing the need to connect older adults and technology. 那是Eric Dishman传递的乐观的信息，他是英特尔公司的全球健康创造的主任，他数十年来一直试着说服政坛的人物以及工业上的负责人。作为一个富有魅力的政策分析者，Dishman先生在TedMed 会议上就这个课题的演讲使听众们都为他着迷了，在那场演讲里他带了一个老式的旋转的电话，这是为了说明老年人也有必要与高科技联系起来的道具。 In his office in Beaverton, Ore., he demonstrates some prototypes, like a social networking system for senior housing centers, that older Americans are already testing. Often, he says, field studies of his gadgets result in “success catastrophes” — the devices prove so popular that testers and their families are loath to return them. The people testing the social network devices, for example, asked for extra models for off-campus friends. 在他俄勒冈州的比佛顿的办公室里面，放了一些原型，就像老年人家居中心的社会工作者一样，那些模型已经在测试中了。他说，常常这方面的研究工具会导致“成功的灾难”——这些装置很受欢迎，测试者家庭都不愿意归还。比如说，这些参与测试社交网络装置的测试者，还会索要更多的模型去给学校里的朋友， “There is an enormous market opportunity to deliver technology and services that allow for wellness and prevention and lifestyle enhancement,” he says. “Whichever countries or companies are at the forefront of that are going to own the category.” “在这种为了健康和提高生活质量的科技和服务上有无限的商机，”他说。“不管哪个国家或者公司走在这个领域的前线都会大受欢迎。” Industry is beginning to hear his message. Last month, a group including Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson and Aegon said it had formed the Global Coalition on Aging, to help governments and industries better handle the age boom. “Companies are starting to think about how they can be age friendly much the same way they have been thinking about how they could be environmentally friendly over the last couple of decades,” says Andy Sieg, the head of retirement services at Bank of America. 工业界已经准备接受他的信息了。上个月，由美国美林银行，辉瑞公司，强生公司和全球人寿等组成的小组表示他们成立了为老年人服务的全球联盟，以此来帮助政府和工业界更好地解决老年潮。“公司们正在考虑如何才能变成老年人友好型，就像数十年前考虑如何变成环境友好型一样，”Andy Sieg说，他是美国银行的退休服务部门的头儿。 THE Mirabella, a new $130 million high-rise in the South Waterfront section of Portland, Ore., may be the greenest luxury retirement community in the nation. 米拉贝拉，是俄勒冈州的波特兰南海滨区的拥有13000万美元资产的新兴社区，可能会成为国家的环保豪华退休社区。 The building has solar-heated hot water, a garage where valets stack cars in racks atop one another, sensors that turn off the lights when stairways are empty and platinum certification from Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design, or LEED, the group that sets national benchmarks for sustainable building. 这座建筑有太阳能热水，车停在架子，车子一个停在另一个上面，传感器会在楼梯无人的时候关上灯，还有能源与环境设计（LEED）的领导提供的白金认证，这座建筑堪称国家可持续建筑的标准。 But never mind the free loaner Priuses in the garage. The Mirabella also aspires to be the grayest — by providing an opportunity to develop and test the latest home-health technology and design concepts for older adults. 但是不要对免费借用车库的那台普瑞斯太惊讶。米拉贝拉社区鼓励人们变成最能干的人——给他们提供发展，测试家庭健康技术以及为老年人设计的机会。 The building’s architects, Ankrom Moisan Associated Architects, turned on its head the idea of putting retirees out to pasture. This urban high-rise, conveniently located next to Oregon Health and Science University, enables residents to stay as healthy, engaged and socially connected as possible, says Jeff Los, a principal in the firm. 这栋建筑的设计师们是Ankrom Moisan 建筑师联合协会的成员，他们的想法是把退休的老人安置在牧场里面。Jeff Los是这个公司的首席执行官，他说，这个在城市里的高层建筑，就在俄勒冈健康与科技大学旁边，保证了那里的居民能够保持健康，尽量融入社会。 “Historically, upscale senior housing has been a rural three-story entity spread over 30 acres,” he says. “This is a 30-story building on one acre with a streetcar stop at the front door.” “历史上，高档住宅从农村的三层楼房到现在扩展到了30亩地，”他说，“而这个是一座一亩地上30层楼高的建筑，还有公交车停在你家门口。” The developers, Pacific Retirement Services, bought land from the university with the idea of encouraging research next door, at the school’s Oregon Center for Aging & Technology, also known as Orcatech. As part of that project, the company spent nearly a half-million dollars to install fiber optic cables so that Mirabella residents could be encouraged to volunteer for a “living laboratory” program in which wireless motion sensors, installed in their apartments, track their mobility and, by extension, their health status in real time. 开发商是太平洋退休服务公司，它从大学买来这块地旨在鼓励邻居进行研究，它的邻居是学校的俄勒冈老年人科技研究中心，缩写为Oratech。作为这项课题的一部分，公司花费了将近50万美元来建立光缆网，这样米拉贝拉的居民就可以志愿参加“生活实验室”这项课题了。他们的家里会装上无线运动传感器，追踪他们的行动，额外地，还会时时关注他们的健康数据。 Older adults in other parts of the city are already particip researchers hope to prove that continually monitoring them can help predict and prevent problems like falls, or even social withdrawal, says Dr. Jeffrey Kaye, a neurology professor who directs Orcatech. 这座城市的老年人早已参与进这项课题了；Jeffrey Kaye 博士是俄勒冈老年人科技研究中心的神经学教授，他说，研究员们希望能够证明，不间断的监控老年人能帮助他们预测以及防止摔倒，社会学上的孤僻现象的发生。 And some residents may eventually want to modify the monitoring system so that they can download and make use of their own health data, Mr. Los says. Los先生说，有些居民最终想要修改这个监控装置，这样他们可以自己下载并利用自己的健康数据。 In fact, even before Mirabella opened last fall, residents asked for adjustments to the building. They demanded space in the garage for their kayaks, recalls Mr. Dishman, who serves on the building’s steering committee. 事实上，在米拉贝拉去年秋天开始之前，居民们就要就对这座建筑进行调整。他们要求车库里要提供皮艇的空间，Dishman先生回忆道，他是为这座建筑的驾驶委员会服务的。 “Baby boomers are going to be very different seniors,” he says. “婴儿潮时长大的人可真不是一般的老人家呀，”他说。 ABOUT 30 older adults in the greater Portland area have volunteered to participate in the Orcatech living laboratory program. 在波特兰地区大约有三十名老年人志愿参加俄勒冈老年人科学技术研究中心的生活实验室这个研究课题。 Dorothy Rutherford, 86, a petite redhead with a deadpan wit, is one of them. And she is a model for the kind of independent aging,&attached by technology, that the researchers hope to encourage. Dorothy Rutherford今年86岁，一头红发富有才智的她就是其中一员。她是那些独立的老年人的一个典型，拥有研究员希望他们具有的对科技的关注。 Her bone-colored earrings — a gift from a dentist who made them from denture material — dangle as she gives me a tour of the equipment that researchers have installed in her apartment. Sensors that monitor the speed and frequency of her activity dot the ceilings and cling to furniture, appliances and doors. 她的彩色骨头耳环——一个牙医用假牙的材料做的礼物——当她给我展示研究人员在她家装的装置时她就戴着这对耳环。监控她的活动速度和频率的传感器贴在天花板上，家具上，还有门上。 “I have no worries about privacy whatsoever,” she declares, waving at the ceiling. “They are just sensors, not video cameras.” ”我对隐私神马的不在乎，“她说，还对着天花板挥手哪。 ”它们只是传感器，又不是摄像机。“ A wireless smart pillbox reminds her to take her daily vitamins. A computer on which she plays specific word and number games tracks her daily scores. 一个无线智能药片盒提醒她别忘了吃今天的维他命。一个她玩单词和数字游戏的电脑记录下她今天的分数。 But her favorite experiment so far involved an anthropomorphic robot from Vgo Communications, nicknamed Celia, that was equipped with a video screen. Mrs. Rutherford’s granddaughter and great-granddaughter in Wyoming could remotely operate Celia any time they wanted to follow her around for a video chat. 但是目前她最喜欢的实验是有一个来自Vgo通信公司昵称为瑟里阿的人性化机器人参与的，瑟里阿装备有摄像的屏幕。Rutherford女士的远在怀俄明州的孙女和曾孙女可以随时远程操控瑟里阿跟在她身后和她视频通话。 Mrs. Rutherford, a retired waitress, already uses Skype to talk to family members. But Skype is stationary, she says, while the robot conveniently wheels itself from room to room. Rutherford女士是一名退休的女招待员，早就用上了Skype与家人联系。但是Skype是静止不动的，她说，机器人却可以跟着你到处跑。 “When I saw Celia the robot, I thought there are all kinds of possibilities to get you set up at home,” she says. “Why would somebody go to a retirement community if they can figure out a way to keep people home longer?” “当我看见瑟里阿的时候，我就想家里真是什么东西都可以装啊，”她说。“如果一个人可以独立的解决自己所有的问题，那为什么还要去养老院呢？” Even so, the pilot program is not inexpensive: it costs about $1,000 to set up each participant with a computer and $6 sensors, plus $2,600 a year for technical support, Internet access and home visits from researchers. Monitoring costs vary. (The robot, which is not a regular feature of the program and which participants tried for about a week each, costs $6,000 plus a monthly $100 service fee.) 尽管这样，这个课题可不是一般人能够支付起的：首先要花1000美元来装置电脑，还有6美元的传感器外加2600美元的技术支持费用，比如互联网路径和研究院的来访。监控的费用更加五花八门。（拿这个机器人来说吧，它不是正常的课题所需要的，参与者试用一个星期就要花6000美元外加每个月100美元的服务费用。） The continuous monitoring of people like Mrs. Rutherford may point the way to more preventive health care — an alternative to the pattern of doctors seeing elderly patients on an infrequent basis, often treating them only after they have developed acute illnesses or had accidents. “What if there were thousands of homes around America that had these simple systems in place?” Dr. Kaye of Orcatech says about the monitoring system.
这种像对Rutherford女士那样不间断的监控指出一条更加有效的健康保护的道路——不定时不经常的医生对老年病人的看诊，仅仅只是在他们患有某种特定的疾病才会治疗。“如果美国千千万万的家庭里都有这种装置会怎么样？”俄勒冈老年人科技研究中心的Kaye博士说。 The idea is to determine whether changes in daily habits — like walking speed, posture, sleep, pill taking, computer game scores — can accurately predict things like cognitive decline or balance problems, allowing doctors to intervene before someone falls and, say, breaks a hip.
这种理念就是要找出哪些改变是在日常生活中的——比如走路的速度，动作的姿势，睡眠，吃药，电脑游戏的分数——这些都可以精确的预测认知衰退或者平衡问题，让医生可以在病发之前加以干涉。 Intel and General Electric recently started a joint venture, Intel-GE Care Innovations, to develop technologies that help older adults stay independent. They are already marketing the Intel Health Guide, a home monitoring system that helps doctors remotely manage patients’ care. 英特尔公司和通用电气最近开办了一个合资公司，英特尔—通用创新公司，来开发帮助老年人保持独立的技术。他们早已经把英特尔健康向导投入市场，这是一个家用监控系统，帮助医生远程关注患者的信息。 There’s just one obstacle: the marketplace for age independence technology is in its infancy. Because of ageism, Mr. Dishman says, many retailers aren’t ready to make space for such products and many companies don’t even want to develop them. 只有一个困难：这些为老年人的独立设计的产品才刚刚起步。由于年龄歧视的关系，Dishman先生说，很多零售商根本不愿意把这种产品摆在货架上，许多公司也根本不愿意开发这样的产品。 “Life enhancement technology for boomers is a chicken-and-egg problem,” he says. Is “the market going to take the first plunge, or are companies going to create technologies without knowing whether we can sell it?” “为老年潮生活质量提高的科技就是母鸡和鸡蛋的问题，”他说。就是“市场将要进行一次冒险活动，或者说公司要创造出一些技术却不知道我们能不能把它卖出去？” He has been on a mission, he says, to have Congress put the issue on he’d also like to see the White House establish a commission on aging. The European Union, he points out, has already committed more than one billion euros to study technology and aging. 他担负起了这样一个任务，他说，他要说服国会把这个议题放上国家的议程上来；他也希望白宫能够建立一个关于老年人的委员会。他指出，欧盟早就投入了超过100亿欧元来研究老年人使用的技术。 But so far, the officials he has met with have not taken up the cause, he says. In the laundry list of initiatives in his State of the Union address last month, President Obama pushed clean energy, not gray tech. 但是目前为止，他说，他所遇到的政府官员还没有接受他的议题的打算。上个月奥巴马总统向联合国提出的倡议是推动清洁能源的发展，而不是关注老年人的应用技术。 Mr. Dishman asks: “What do we need to do for aging and gray technology to have the same urgency and investment that global warming” and green technology have? Dishman先生问道：“人口老龄化和老年应用技术与全球变暖和环保技术同样紧迫，我们能做些什么呢？ GRAMPA. Golden ager. Elderly person. Senior citizen. 老爷爷。夕阳。老年人。高龄市民。 Americans have come to associate agedness with frailty and disability rather than with institutional memory and expertise. 美国人对老年人的印象是脆弱又无能而不是有着丰富的回忆以及专门的知识。 “People somehow assume that when we are young, we are vital,” says Ken Dychtwald, the C.E.O. of AgeWave, a research and consulting organization that focuses on population aging. “Then, when we pass 40, we are on a downward slope to death.” “人们总是或多或少的认为当你年轻的时候你就是重要力量，”Ken Dychywald说，他是老年潮的总裁，老年潮是关注人口老龄化的研究和咨询组织。“然后呢，等我们过了不惑之年，我们就纯粹是在等死。” For more than a quarter-century, Mr. Dychtwald, 60 and thus himself a baby boomer, has been trying to rebrand aging as a positive phenomenon. He’s coined a word — “middlescence” — to convey later life as a transformative stage, like adolescence, in which people have free time and an increased interest in trying new experiences. He also came up with an antidote to retirement: “rehirement.” 25年来，Dychtwald先生这个年过六十的老人，自身也是当年婴儿潮的一份子，一直试着把人口老龄化诠释为一个具有积极意义的现象。他还创造了一个词——“老少年”——来说明老年是一个变革的阶段，就好像青少年一样，在这个阶段人们有充裕的时间可以发展兴趣爱好获得更多新的人生经验。他还重新定义了退休：“二次就业”。 Now that the oldest baby boomers are turning 65, he says, their sheer numbers may attract industries that had earlier shied away. “If you are a Fortune 100 company, or an inventor in a garage, where are you going to find another demographic that is that large, that robust in spending power, that open to new possibilities, and that underserved?” he asks. “There’s nothing to rival it.” 当年的婴儿潮最老的人现在已经65岁了，他说，他们十足的数量可能会吸引原来不甩他们的工业生产商。“如果你是个头脑聪明的公司，或者你是一个发明家，你在国内的哪里可以找到一个如此庞大的市场，在消费力上又如此的给力，给公司的发展带来新的可能，目前的服务水平又如此的低下？”他问道。“没有什么能与他们抗衡的了。” In 2009, for example, baby-boomer households in the United States spent about $2.6 trillion, according to estimates from AgeWave based on a consumer expenditure survey by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 比如在2009年，婴儿潮那一代的家庭消费额为2.6兆美元，这是老年潮组织根据劳工统计局的消费调查作出的估计。 But so far, he says, very few companies have applied creative intelligence to understanding older adults and developing game-changing technologies, services, experiences and even new careers for them. 但是目前为止，很少有公司会花功夫来研究老年人，开发技术，服务，或者为老人提供新的职业。 Imagine a new real estate sector, he says, that caters to the former hippies among baby boomers who want to form retirement communities with friends by buying six-bedroom communal penthouses in Chicago or farms in Vermont. Or Internet cemeteries, he says, that would preserve video libraries of people’s lives for their descendants to enjoy. 想象一个新兴的房地产部门，他说，要满足原来是嬉皮士的那些婴儿潮现在想要和朋友们住在一起，买一个有六间卧室的房子，和来自芝加哥的性感美女或者和佛蒙特的农场女孩住在一起。他说，或者网络公墓，老人把自己的声音保存在网上，这样他的后代都可以听见他的声音。 “Rather than viewing maturity as an opportunity to sell people a golf membership or an arthritis medicine,” he says, “since a person who turns 60 has another 20 years, why not create educational programs whereby people can be motivated to go out, learn new skills and have an encore?” “与其他老年人看作未来的高尔夫俱乐部会员或者关节炎药物的未来客户，”他说，“既然一个人60岁以后还有很长一段时间要活，为啥不为他们创造出去玩儿，学新技术还有看演唱会的机会哪？” AGNES, the age empathy suit developed by the M.I.T. AgeLab, is calibrated to simulate the dexterity, mobility, strength and balance of a 74-year-old. My empathy has clearly deepened after a few hours of road-testing it. But, sheepishly, I still want to shed the suit and its instant add-on decades. 这个增大年龄的外套（Agnes），M.I.T的老年实验室研发的年龄植入外套，被校准来模仿74岁老人的灵活度，活动性，力量和平衡。在几个小时的行走测试之后我的植入一步步深入了。但是，我真的好想马上把这个外套和变老的感觉甩开呀。 Professor Coughlin started AgeLab in 1999 to address what he calls “the longevity paradox” — the idea that, while people in many developed countries now live several decades longer than those born a century ago, very few policy makers, institutions and industries are dedicated to helping people make those extra decades healthy and productive. Coughlin教授从1999年开始运行这个老年实验室，他研究的问题是“长寿悖论”——这是说，尽管发达国家的人们比那些一百年前的人们活得要久了几十年，没有什么政客，机构和工业家会想要帮助人们把这多出来的几十年活的更加健康更加有效率。 More than a decade later, with boomers starting to turn 65, experts like Professor Coughlin hope to make gray the new green. Their job would be easier if it were fun to wear Agnes. 十几年以后，当年的婴儿潮开始变成白发老人，像Coughlin教授那样的专家想把老年人变成当年的环保一样受人关注。如果穿年龄增大外套(Agnes)很有趣的话，他们的工作会容易得多。
来自无觅插件
2050年则是150亿。???
1.5billion。。。是呃。。。多少呢
reader666666
泪流满面。。。
哈，是15亿。
小时候吃多了鱼籽。。。数数数不清。。。
reader666666
何故？不堪被表扬？
reader666666
当然是喜悦的泪水啦~！有时候翻译很长很有价值的文章没人关心，但是翻译那种没几个字又全是图片的就会很多人看。。。
reader666666
Yes, you are right.
自古以来的文化作品，就有阳春白雪与下里巴人之别，反正是义务劳动，不必在意掌声是否热烈。
很幸运能看到你翻译的这篇文章。我在百度收索老人的商业机会的时候偶然发现这篇文章。所以我感觉很幸运，也很高兴能给你留言。
其实我感觉这样的研究机构酷似当年的“施乐”然后就更需要像乔布斯，盖茨这样的开发和商业天才
还没有人赞过这篇文章
戴着镣铐跳舞。
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