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Josiah Stamp, former chief of the Bank of England in 1927, warned:If you want to continue
to be the slaves of bankers, and pay the cost of your own slavery, then
let bankers continue to create money and control credit. Indeed, the
world economy is now held hostage by an elite banking cartel, whose
reckless pursuit of speculation and bloated profits, has precipitated
a breakdown of the global financial system, and is plunging the world
towards a &Great Depression.& The global economy
will grind to a halt this year, the IMF predicts, after $ 30-trillion
in market capitalization was erased from world stock markets since October
2007, in the wake of the worst banking crisis since the Great Depression
of the 1930&s. What began with the bursting of the US house price bubble has, so far, resulted in $1.2-trillion of losses and write-downs from
toxic assets held by banks worldwide. The IMF warned:Unless stronger
financial strains and uncertainties are forcefully addressed, the pernicious
feedback loop between real activity and financial markets will intensify,
leading to even more toxic effects on global growth.
The are also predicting that bank losses could eventually peak at $2.2-trillion,
and hobble the world economy in the year ahead. The IMF said on January
28th: Downside risks continue
to dominate, as the scale and scope of the current financial crisis
has taken the global economy into uncharted waters, triggered by the
collapse of bank credit and stock markets.
Global trade collapsed
by 45% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, exposing the staggering
depth of the global financial crisis. Speaking at Davos, Switzerland
last week, Australian trade minister Simon Crean warned that falling
global trade would compound the economic downturn. &If global trade
is a multiplier in growth, it also has the potential to be a multiplier
in reverse,& he warned on Jan 31st.
click to enlarge The Baltic Cape-Size
Index, which measures the cost of shipping coal, iron ore, and steel
across the high-seas, is still languishing 90% below its record high
of 19,200-points set in May 2007. Global bankers suspended issuing &letters
of credit& that importers and exporters rely upon to finance overseas
trade. Of the $14.5-trillion of cargo that is shipped across the high-seas
each year, roughly 90% is financed with &letters of credit,& issued
by bankers, guaranteeing payment to the shipper, once shipments are
delivered to the buyer. With banks cutting-off &letters of credit,&
the wheels of global shipping have ground to a halt. Global growth this
year will come to a &virtual standstill,& warned Olivier Blanchard,
the IMF&s chief economist,
on January 28th. &We need stronger policy on the financial
front,& he said. Leading the Group of Seven nations into contraction
will be the UK-economy, projected to slide 2.8%, Japan&s economy will
shrink 2.6% and the Euro-zone will lose 2%, followed by the US-economy,
which will contract 1.6 percent. China&s economy will slow to 6.7%
growth, after peaking at 12.7% in Q2, 2007. There are indications
that US President Obama is heeding the IMF&s message, and is ready
to exert pressure on the largest US-banks, and over time, could exercise
more day-to-day control and scrutiny over their lending practices. Obama
will require American bankers receiving cash from the Treasury&s bailout fund, to commit to minimum levels of lending and place caps on executive
pay and bonuses.
Shifting the focus
from paying bonuses to Wall Street bankers, to reviving the US housing
market and consumer spending, is the first step for escaping the economic
death spiral. Citigroup (NYSE:), under government pressure to increase its lending,
says it will use $36.5-billion to issue mortgages, make credit card
loans, and buy distressed assets in the tight credit markets in the
coming months.
A reeling US-economy
has also translated into severe pain for overseas markets. South
Korea, the world&s 13th largest economy, is among the most
vulnerable to the global financial crisis. Although China is now Korea&s
largest trading partner, much of what China imports from Korea is re-exported
to the global markets in the form of finished goods. Korea&s exports
to China plunged to $4.75-billion in December, or 35.4% lower from a
year ago, despite a sharply weaker Korean-won. The last double-digit
drop of exports was in 2002, amid the bursting of the
bubble. Korea&s economy is
a key bellwether of the global economy, since exports are equivalent
to 52% of its gross domestic product. Preliminary reports indicate that
exports continued to plunge in January, with shipments to the US declining
21.5%, exports to Europe plunging 47%, and sales to Latin America 36%
lower than a year ago. Not surprisingly, Korea&s GDP shrank 5.6% in the fourth quarter from the
previous three months, the biggest drop since 1998. Korea&s industrial
output plunged 9.6% in December, slipping for a sixth consecutive month,
as Hyundai Motor (), Hynix Semiconductor, and steelmaker Posco (NYSE:) reduced
output in January, to cope with sagging demand. Samsung Electronics (),
the world&s largest maker of memory chips, liquid-crystal displays
and televisions, reported its first ever quarterly loss. Exports of
semiconductors plunged 47% in January from a year earlier, and automobiles
declined 55-percent.
China&s vast manufacturing
sector, which employs tens of millions of workers and has functioned
as the cheap labor workshop of the globe, also slowed dramatically as
demand for its exports collapses in its major North American and European
markets. About 20 million migrant workers, moving from villages to cities
and factories have returned to the countryside, after losing their jobs
because of the economic downturn. Beijing is warning that rising unemployment
could fuel social unrest. After growing at more
than 10% a year for the past five years, the Chinese economy&s growth
rate has fallen in every quarter since reaching an all-time high point
of 12.7% in Q&2 of 2007. Growth rate slumped to 6.8% in Q& 2008,
which isn&t fast enough to create jobs for this year&s 7-million
new entrants into the rural labor market, and would leave China with
about 25-million jobless workers. Still, China has internal
resources - roughly $2-trillion in foreign currency reserves, to prevent
a hard-landing for its economy, and has vowed to spend 4-trillion yuan
on various infrastructure and social programs, over the next two-years,
equal to 15% of its total economic output. Chinese premier, Wen Jiabao,
said the goal of 8% growth this year, is &an attainable target through
hard work. The harsh winter will be gone and spring is around the corner,&
When searching for
a glimmer of optimism for the global economy these days, there is a
small sigh of relief that China&s Purchasing Managers& Index (PMI)
rose to a reading of 42.2 in January from 41.2 in December, inching
further away from the record low of 40.9 plumbed in November. The PMI
is a snapshot of overall conditions in manufacturing industry, and still
signals a sub-par growth rate that can ultimately lead to higher Chinese
unemployment.
However, the index
for new export orders from overseas jumped to 36.3 in January, up 28%
from a low of 28.2 in November, a possible sign that the worst is behind
China&s export industry. If China is going to be the savior that pulls
the global economy out of its death spiral, one early signal could be
a sustained rally in the Shanghai stock index, above the December high
at the 2,100-level. Copper traders in Shanghai are also tracking factory
activity and stock market trends.
Russia&s Putin
Lashes out at Wall Street Barons
Last week, the world&s
most influential business executives and politicians converged in Davos,
Switzerland, with the most dangerous economic crisis since the 1930&s
dominating the discourse. One of the main attractions at the World Economic
Forum in Davos, was Russian kingpin Vladimir Putin, whose political
strength rests on the Kremlin&s authoritarian control over the media,
secret police, banks, and natural resource oligarchs, that has stifled
any meaningful political opposition.
Putin scolded Western
capitalists for dragging the global economy into a death spiral. Putin declared:A
year ago, American delegates emphasized the US economy&s fundamental
stability and its cloudless prospects. Today, investment banks, the
pride of Wall Street, have virtually ceased to exist. The entire economic
growth system, where one regional center prints money without respite
and consumes material wealth, while another regional center manufactures
inexpensive goods and saves money printed by other governments, has
suffered a major setback.
World leaders in Davos
were informed of street riots and spreading discontent, and vowed to
prevent the financial crisis from inflicting deeper damage and making
global poverty worse. Last week, more than a million people took to
the streets of French cities to protest, thousands marched in Russia,
&Buy American& initiatives have sprung-up in the US-Congress, and
thousands of British employees staged walkouts against the use of foreign
contract workers.
So far, the biggest
casualties of the global financial crisis are the Russian economy, currency,
stock market, and the Kremlin&s rapidly shrinking stash of FX reserves.
The Russian Trading System Index, once the world&s biggest stock market
bubble, has collapsed, with a staggering 80% slide from its record high
set in July of last year. Putin called the Western banking crisis a
&perfect storm whose destructive powers were multiplied worldwide,&
but in a humble tone, called upon his economic rivals to work together
to find an exit route from the death spiral.
Global bankers are
retreating en-masse from the emerging world, including Russia, and private
capital flows to emerging markets are expected to plunge to $165-billion
this year, down from almost $1-trillion two-years ago.
Foreign investors and Russian citizens withdrew at least $278 billion
from Russian banks deposits, exchange traded bonds and stocks since
August, shedding more than $1 trillion from the RTS Index.
Energy and metals make
up 80% of Russia&s exports,
Deputy Prime Minister and Finance chief Alexei Kudrin said on Jan 30th,
that Russia&s export revenue could plunge by $200-billion in 2009,
to roughly $269 billion. Kudrin said:It is the first time since
the global economy will see demand for crude oil and energy products
decline for two-years running. However, unlike in the
Euro-zone and the US-economy, Russia doesn&t face a debilitating deflation
risk, since falling demand in Russia will be counteracted by rising
prices on imported goods due to the devaluation of the Russian rouble.
The demise of Putin&s
empire is largely linked to the stunning collapse of crude oil, with
Russia&s Urals blend tumbling from as high as $140 /barrel in July,
to as low as $32 /barrel in December. Surprisingly, the Kremlin has
refused to join the OPEC cartel in cutting its oil output to support
prices, or even siphoning off some of its oil supply into strategic
tankers, to help reverse the bear market slide.
The sharp slide in
crude oil prices has left Russia&s rouble vulnerable to speculative
attack by currency traders, and a 40% drop in budget revenues as the
global economic crisis lays bare Russia&s poorly diversified economy.
Putin relied upon oil profits to steer Russia out of the 1998 currency-crisis,
wiped-out the country&s foreign debt, amassed nearly $600-billion
in foreign currency reserves, and doubled average worker&s incomes
in six-years, during oil&s boom years.
Russia&s economy
quickly became the world&s seventh-largest. One year ago, on Feb 14,
2008, Putin boasted of Russia&s economic transformation in his eight-years
in power. Putin declared:It will be quite easy for Russian banks to get through
the liquidity crisis. We have restored the fundamental principles of
Russian economy on an absolutely new market base, and we are surely
changing into one of the economic leaders of the world. The stock index
rose 20% in 2007.
But without a competitive
manufacturing base as a balance, to Russia&s dependence on energy,
base metals, and other natural resources, Russia&s economy is highly
vulnerable to commodity price fluctuations. Russia has lost 6-million jobs since the global
credit crunch began to bite, as industrial output went into free-fall.
Foreign inflows which
hit $100-billion in 2007, and were responsible for 25% of the investments
in Russia&s capital markets, went into reverse after Putin&s accusation
in July that the coal and steel company Mechel (NYSE:) had engaged in
price-fixing, knocking its shares 40% lower in a single-day. So was
the continuing battle between Putin and the embattled Anglo-Russian
oil producer TNK-BP, reminiscent of a Yukos-style asset grab and there
was the August invasion of Georgia.
Urals crude oil, Russia&s
chief export blend, has slumped far below the $70 average required to
balance Russia&s budget this year. Declining oil prices and a deteriorating
economy has invited speculators to short-sell the Russian rouble, and
ordinary Russian citizens, mindful of the previous rouble devaluation
in 1998, when the currency lost 70% of its purchasing power, are rushing
to convert their rouble savings into US-dollars, Swiss francs, and Gold.
Russia holds the world&s
largest natural-gas reserves, the second largest coal reserves, and
the eighth largest oil reserves, and in a crowning achievement of Russian
Petro-power, Putin ordered the Russian rouble to be freely convertible
into other foreign currencies. One-year ago, Dmitry Medvedev declared
that he would push for Russian oil and gas to be traded in roubles.
&We need to stimulate the switch to rouble payment for our commodities,&
Medvedev said, since a decline in the US-dollar&s value had eroded
the purchasing power of oil exporters. But one-year later,
it&s the Russian rouble which has fallen to an all-time low against
the US-dollar, despite efforts by the central bank to stem capital flight
by hiking its repo rate to 13%, and selling $200-billion from its FX
stash for roubles on the open market. By remaining committed to rouble
convertibility, the Kremlin was forced to spend a third of its treasure
chest, to defend its currency, which still lost a third of its value
against the dollar since the invasion of Georgia last August.
Unable to restore
confidence in the rouble, amid weak base metal and crude oil prices,
Moscow has adopted a so-called dirty float that will allow the rouble
to gyrate within a wide range of 26 to 41 to the dollar.
The currency market is still allowed to determine the value of the rouble,
but the central bank could intervene to enforce the trading band,
rather than trying to influence it on a day-to-day basis.
By widening the trading
band for the rouble, the Kremlin aims to conserve more of its badly
depleted FX stash. Sergei Shvetsov,
Russia&s FX chief, said on Jan 27th, the central bank had
spent $35 billion to support the rouble in January, but there were no
interventions in the last week of the month, as the rouble found its
own level of equilibrium, with Urals crude gyrating around $42/barrel.
But should Urals crude
tumble towards $30 amid a synchronized global depression, the rouble
could tumble further towards 41 per US$, from around 36-roubles today.
Shvetsov also expressed his backing for a freely floating currency,
in order to have more leverage over inflation through adjusting interest
rates, and to attract foreign capital, once commodity prices stabilize
and begin to rebound.
The global capital
and money markets operate in a vast web of interconnections that are
sometimes difficult for traders to uncover. One of the outgrowths of
the Russian rouble devaluation, and the collapse of the crude oil and
Russian stock market, was a flight into safe-haven Swiss francs and
Gold. The Swiss franc has gained 35% against the Russian rouble over
the past three months, while the yellow metal has soared 65% to an all-time
high of 33,000-roubles per ounce.
Swiss National Bank
warns Currency Speculators Gold hit all-time highs
against most major foreign currencies in January, confounding conventional
wisdom, with a background of plunging industrial commodities, and a
global economy that is lurching towards a deflationary depression. Instead,
gold&s role as a hedge against excessive money printing by central
bankers, and major currency devaluations, has attracted legions of investors
worldwide.
Nicolas Copernicus, in 1525, said:Nations are not
ruined by one act of violence, but quite often, gradually, and almost
imperceptibly, by the depreciation of their currency, through excessive
quantity. Even the Swiss National
Bank, with its reputation as a monetary hawk, has now declared war against
currency traders who are bidding up the Swiss franc as a safe-haven
against other depreciating paper currencies, such as the Russian rouble
and weak Central European currencies.
The Swiss National
Bank is ready to utilize all the weapons in its arsenal, to prevent further
appreciation of the Swiss franc against other currencies, especially
against the Euro, said SNB deputy Philipp Hildebrand on Jan 21st.
The SNB slashed its 3-month Libor target by 50-basis to 0.50% on Dec
11th, yet the Swiss franc has climbed 7% higher against the
Euro, threatening to undermine Switzerland&s export oriented economy.
&The SNB could also buy government or corporate bonds to ease monetary
conditions further,& Hildebrand warned, even if rates reached zero. &We have all options
open and have no limits when intervening in financial markets should
it become necessary,& SNB member Thomas Jordan said on Dec 11th. Hildebrand added:In general, a central bank can always increase the absolute amount
of its own currency in circulation. The SNB
could sell Swiss francs against other currencies without limits. In
an extreme case, it could commit itself to buying foreign currencies
at a fixed rate. In a world of currency
devaluations and instability, zero-percent money market rates, and soon,
massive central bank monetization of government bonds, gold has emerged
as a safe-haven for preserving wealth. The things that will destroy
us are, politics without principle, pleasure without conscience, wealth
without work, knowledge without character, business without morality,
science without humanity, and worship without sacrifice. -- Mahatma
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Privacy Policy & Dated February 2014
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