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Is Avatar destined to flop?
Zoe Saldana and Sam Worthington in Avatar
After years of hype, loads of
and TV spots, and an
in more than 100 theaters, James Cameron's Avatar opens next Friday with a single question hanging in the air: What in the hell is going on with the ? At the blog , the poster "fenzel" speaks for much of the Comic-Con crowd in arguing that " " because "[c]ats with human boobs suck." Drew Magary of Deadspin opines that the blue-aliens-riding-dragons flick could be the . And after attending an "Avatar Day" preview, Slate's Daniel Engber wrote that while the "," the film's CGI scenes bear an unfortunate and uncanny resemblance to the Jar Jar Binks-era
Executives at Fox shouldn't break out the cyanide just yet. The movie is apparently getting , and Harry Knowles
. (Then again, Harry Knowles is .) So, will Avatar be a blockbuster or a flop—a blue-cat Star Wars or a blue-cat
Advertisement
My money's on blockbuster. Supporting evidence for the cat-people-as-cash-cow theory can be found on the . As of Thursday evening,
on HSX, a prediction market that , an associate professor at Harvard Business School, says has . That 187.09 figure means HSX traders believe the movie will make close to $187 million in its first four weeks of domestic release—a figure that would put the movie well on its way to profitability.
In addition to online betting markets, search-engine traffic also provides a glimpse at a movie's earning potential. In
(PDF) published earlier this year, Duncan J. Watts and his team at
wrote that "search activity alone is indicative of box-office revenue, and remains so even weeks in advance of a movie's release." Asked to do a quick-and-dirty analysis of Avatar's prospects, Watts says his models—which don't consider factors like Avatar's opening on IMAX screens and the size of the film's marketing blitz—predict a $65 million to $84 million first-weekend gross. He notes that search volume for Avatar at this stage—one week before release—is about the same as the count for
, a movie that earned $87 million on its opening weekend.
The Yahoo Research numbers track with what traditional analysts are saying. On Wednesday, Jeffrey Wells of Hollywood Elsewhere quoted a box-office seer who believes Avatar
on its opening weekend—right around what
took in back in 2003. For Wells, the question is whether the film will be a hit or a mega-hit. "Who isn't going to want to see this film? No one." he writes. "But how many will want to see twice or thrice? That's the question." Variety's David Cohen agrees, telling me that while the movie "could lose money for the studio" because of , "it's almost inconceivable that Avatar would be an all-out bomb."
Blockbusterdom can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. The studios select the properties they deem the most promising, then promote them with ginormous advertising campaigns and open them on the most-lucrative opening weekends. Avatar, which arrives on Dec. 18, will surely benefit from holiday moviegoing practices. Movies that open around Christmas tend to have a higher "multiple"—that is, a larger final gross as compared to the opening-weekend take—than non-Yuletide releases. Even a smaller-than-expected opening weekend for Avatar, then, could balloon into mega-dollars by New Year's Day as a bored populace struggles to fill time on a week off from work.
The movie's three-dimensionality should also help its cash flow. Avatar, the first live-action blockbuster of the present 3-D age, should open on about . Thanks to the
on tickets to 3-D movies, that extra dimension will do wonders for Avatar's bottom line. Curiosity should also benefit the blue cats. Variety's Cohen, who's writing a book on 3-D, says that while animated titles have done the bulk of 3-D business,
both made more money than their opening weekend grosses seemed to predict. "Journey was a little kids' movie with a modest budget that went a long way toward proving that there's a huge consumer demand for these pictures," he says.
Even if the feline humanoids don't wow American audiences, Avatar should still print money overseas. Judging by recent history, the movie'sdomestic take will play a smallish role in its ultimate profitability. 2012 has made 78 percent of its total gross——via international ticket sales. Foreign audiences have traditionally loved Cameronian spectacle— ,
all made more than 60 percent of their lifetime gross overseas. The world-at-large also appears smitten with 3-D. Consider
, which made $200 million at home and close to $700 million abroad. Avatar will debut on , with
building up 3-D infrastructure specifically for Avatar. Bring on the pesos and yuan.
If you're looking for indicators of floppery, consider that Avatar is an original story.
Of the , Hancock and The Day After Tomorrow are the only live-action movies that are not either sequels or based on existing properties.
Cameron isn't telling some avant-garde story, though. Avatar, a sci-fi action flick with romantic elements, fills in pretty much every box on the blockbuster checklist.
The one weak point here may be the romance angle. Avatar will need repeat business to be a true smash. Obviously, most of that will depend on whether the movie is any good. It will also require, though, that Avatar appeal to women. In
, Leonardo DiCaprio kissed Kate Winslet. In Avatar, Sam Worthington smooches a cat lady. An industry analyst who's seen the studio tracking data tells me that the XX crowd has yet to cotton to the latter image. Compare that to Sherlock Holmes, coming out on Christmas Day, which appears to be , appealing to under-25 men, over-25 men, under-25 women, and over-25 women.
Which leads to one final Avatar question: Is it too late to make all the cat girls look like Kate Winslet?
Correction,
Dec. 11, 2009: This piece originally said that of "the 50 highest-grossing films of the decade, Hancock is the only live-action movie that's not either a sequel or based on an existing property." The Day After Tomorrow also meets those specifications. (
to the corrected sentence.)
Propublica
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Jordan Weissmann
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Ben Zimmer
The XX Factor
Can These Feminists Fix Twitter's Harassment Problem?
Amanda Marcotte
The Slate&Doctor Who Podcast: Episode 12
A spoiler-filled discussion of &Death in Heaven.&
Mac Rogers, Gabriel
Roth, Laura Helmuth, Phil Plait, and June Thomas
Harry Belafonte Gives a Rousing, Eloquent Primer on Hollywood’s Racial History
Sharan Shetty
Future Tense
Online Privacy Should Be Marketed More Like Snowboarding, Says Wickr CEO
Lily Hay Newman
Bad Astronomy
Expedition 41 Set to Return to Earth Tonight
Phil Plait
Sports Nut
Michigan Fans 1, Dave Brandon 0
The resignation of the Wolverines’ villainous athletic director is why we like college sports.
Ben Mathis-Lilley}